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Q&A: How a Climate Scientist Aims to Close the Gap in Cloud Prediction with Machine Learning

  • By HDSIComm
  • April 8, 2025
  • 411 Views

Even as U.S. federal policies and funding for academic research are changing, one scientist’s work at the University of California San Diego’s Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute (HDSI), part of the School of Computing, Information and Data Sciences (SCIDS), aims to demonstrate why federal research support matters.

Duncan Watson-Parris, an assistant professor at HDSI, who holds a joint position at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, is a recipient of a 2025 U.S. National Science Foundation Faculty Early Career Development Program (CAREER) award, which offers support to junior facultymembers who demonstrate the potential to serve as academic role models in research and education. The more than $1M award (no. 2441832) he received is aimed at exploring a persistent challenge faced by climate scientists accurately modeling cloud behavior.

In this Q&A below, Watson-Parris discusses his NSF CAREER award, the importance of cloud behavior in Earth science and how educational outreach will help build scientific literacy around climate models.

Can you describe your NSF Career proposal?

Scientifically, this project aims to improve predictions of future climate change by studying how shallow clouds respond to air pollution (aerosols) and rising temperatures. Clouds play a crucial role in regulating Earth’s temperature, but their responses to these changes remain uncertain. Using advanced climate simulations that incorporate small-scale cloud physics into global models, the research will determine whether aerosols enhance or reduce cloud cooling, identify potential tipping points where clouds may disappear under extreme warming, and explore how aerosols and greenhouse gases interact to shape climate outcomes.

Beyond research, the project includes an educational initiative to enhance public understanding of climate models. In collaboration with educators and outreach programs, it will develop interactive tools and curriculum resources, including a web-based AI climate model emulator for students and the public. These efforts aim to improve climate literacy and highlight the role of models in predicting and understanding climate change.

How did you feel when you heard that your proposal was accepted for funding?

I was delighted to receive this prestigious award. The proposed work gets to the heart of what fascinates me about the climate system, and I’m really excited to have the time and support to ask some of these fundamental questions.

What does this award mean for your career, both personally and professionally?

It’s a really timely validation of the work we’re doing in the Climate Analytics Lab, and a welcome relief given the turbulent funding landscape. Having started in UC San Diego in 2023 this is a wonderful way to get my first sole-PI proposal and will set up our lab to remain at the forefront of data driven climate research.

How will this award impact the direction of your work in the year ahead?

Immediately it has allowed me to make offers to at least one Ph.D. student that I wouldn’t have been able to otherwise, and we’re really excited to kick off the project as soon as they arrive in fall.

Who are your collaborators?

Mostly just our lab members, but with some important collaborators in industryNVIDIA and the Allen Institute for AI.

Will receiving the award lead to additional work?

Not immediately, but it will definitely provide stability from which the lab can explore new directions of study.

What can you tell researchers early in their careers who plan to apply for this award in the future?

It’s a lot of work, but I was really pleasantly surprised how supportive my colleagues were in providing reviews and letters of recommendation, so don’t be shy to ask. Also, this was not my first attempt, so do be sure to persevere!

Any additional thoughts about the importance of the NSF and its mission and programs?

I’m very grateful for the award and also very conscious of the many researchers and students currently anxious about the future of funding from NSF. This kind of fundamental research could only be supported by the NSF, and it is vital for national leadership in science that it continues to do so. There may not be any immediate, shortterm economic impact from fundamental research, but the developments down the road are unknowable and potentially huge.